European Championship Qualifying - The State of Play after Round 1
The first round of fixtures in the tournament to qualify for the 2024 European Championships is over, and can I say thank god. Still, i feel the need to inform you all what you might have missed.
We all hate the international break, but some of time it is important. This is one of them. With one pair of fixtures gone for each team, we’re starting to get a picture of how the groups will play out. If you weren’t paying attention here’s what you might have missed.
Group A
Giving us one of the biggest shocks of the round, Scotland beat Spain 2-0 to give them the lead of the group at the end of the break. The Spaniards lacked energy, bite, cutting edge and everything else required to win a top-level football game. At least half of Scotland’s team were anonymous, including McTominay himself outwith his two goals. That Spain managed to play beneath them is a shocking indictment of the state of the group at the moment. They seemed poor against a Haaland-less Norway but still managed a win. The baffling choice to rotate all but three players against a side far from worst in the group could definitely come back to bite them.
Without the aforementioned Haaland, Norway seem far closer to Georgia than to the Scots. Alexander Sorloth has never moved me and if Odegaard was to go missing too their hopes of qualification would take a big hit. This is especially true considering the quality Georgia has beyond the name-brand Kvaratskhelia. Irakli Azarovi, Georges Mikautadze and ‘keeper Giorgi Mamardashvili are all more than capable at this level and will cause problems for any team in the group. Expect them all to pick up points against a hapless-looking Cyprus.
Group B
Group B has a good mix of sides but, based on this first week, there will probably only be one winner. France & The Netherlands are undoubtedly both expected to qualify after strong World Cup showings. The seismic clash between the two on their first matchday has almost thrown that into doubt, almost. France trounced the Dutch 4-0 in a commanding showing. the Dutch were allowed the majority of possession but failed to break down the French, who conversely worked their way through the Oranje lines with ease at every opportunity. Ronald Koeman’s first game back couldn’t have been worse. Though they managed a slight course correction against Gibraltar, it does not inspire confidence for the future of Koeman’s tenure.
Ireland will see this as a campaign of promise despite their opening 1-0 loss to the French. Their crop of youngsters is an exciting one, although probably a little undercooked to secure qualification this time around. Their friendly victory over Latvia, marred by costly errors at the back, shows that they have much development to do.
Greece will be banking on the red-hot form of AZ’s Vangelis Pavlidis if they are to have any chance of usurping the Dutch for the third spot. As unlikely as that might seem, the resolute defence that saw them promoted in the Nations League is a strong and consistent unit. Whilst they aren’t strong enough to challenge the big boys, they will be tough opponents.
Group C
Group C, hosting a rematch of the European Championship final from 2021, had the most eyes on it this match week. Although England come out as 2-1 winners, that scoreline doesn’t do justice to the trouncing they gave defending European Champions Italy. The Italian attack is toothless and their defence is average at best. Besides Donnarumma between the sticks and a quality starting midfield, the squad is threadbare. Even still, the dropoff between Verratti, Tonali & Barella to the three next best options is massive. The inability of Serie A clubs to bring through young talent is rearing its ugly head. Italy should qualify, but it will be tough. England meanwhile, will likely walk it.
Ukraine should be the third-placed team in the group however I wouldn’t be too shocked to see the gap between themselves and North Macedonia be closer than we think. Ukraine has stronger depth with quality spread all over the pitch. Macedonia’s few talents are concentrated up the pitch with Miovski, Elmas and Bardhi, as well as Dimitrevski in goal. They have proven to be resolute in the past when facing tough opposition and famously denied Italy World Cup qualification but this time around I don’t see it happening.
Group D
The race to qualify from Group D is fraught for the three strongest teams. Whilst Croatia and Turkey will fancy themselves, a resolute Wales will be eager to spoil their fun. Croatia dropped points to the Welsh in the first fixture but beat the Turks 2-0 in their second game.
Wales and Turkey also both claimed victories over Latvia and Armenia respectively giving only a one-point margin between first and third in the group. Wales have the least quality out of the three top teams but Rob Page’s side make up for it with unity on the pitch. Turkey meanwhile have a habit of being unserious when there are eyes on them. It wouldn't be the craziest thought to see them lose out once again.
Group E
Centred mostly around central and eastern Europe, Group E has a set of intriguing matchups. The group’s two best teams, Poland and the Czech Republic duked it out in the first match with Czechia running out 3-1 winners. The Fernando Santos-led Poland side looked toothless against the Czechs, despite having more firepower than their opponents on paper.
The Poles managed to scrape past Albania with an unconvincing 1-0 win against a side lacking talisman Armando Broja up front and Berat Djimsiti at the back. Albania should be better than Moldova and the Faroe Islands but a lack of cutting-edge up front will hurt them in the long run.
Meanwhile, the Czechs slipped to a disappointing draw against Moldova away in Chisinau. It sets up an intriguing group where the best teams have already shown they can play beneath themselves and the worst teams have the ability to set up and negate them. I’d still bet on Poland and Czechia but wouldn’t be surprised to be surprised.
Group F
Group F is for me the toughest to call. Sweden, Belgium and Austria will all believe they can qualify and for one to miss out on the coming tournament would be a failure in the eyes of their FA.
Belgium struck first, trouncing the Swedes 3-0 thanks to a Romelu Lukaku hat-trick in Stockholm. Domenico Tedesco’s Belgium side already look a much younger, fitter spectacle than the laboured ageing group that disappointed at the World Cup. Bringing young boys like Romeo Lavia, Arthur Theate, Johan Bakayoko and Lois Openda will do wonders for their depth and continuity over the campaign. During the break, Lukaku said he “respects” his old foe Zlatan.
Yeah, right.
Sweden meanwhile will need to hope they can get past an Austria side that was fit and firing against group whipping boys Estonia and Azerbaijan. Six goals from four different scorers across the two games will give new manager Ralf Ragnick confidence in his side’s abilities. Sweden also managed to put five goals past the Azeris in their second match but questions over the ability of their defenders to stand up against stronger teams remain. Expect this group to come down to the wire.
Group G
Group G already seems cut and dry. Serbia are miles ahead of their Balkan and Baltic opponents when it comes to quality and depth. A broad talent pool drawing from across Europe’s top-10 leagues has given Dragan Stojković a wealth of options. In midfield especially there are plenty of varying profiles in their prime footballing years to capitalise on. the centre-back options could be improved but it likely won’t be necessary for this group. Four goals and two clean sheets from their first two matches show they have little to fear.
The Hungary side boasting talents such as Dominik Szoboszlai, Atilla Szallai, Roland Sallai and Willi Orban are clear favourites for second place, although their depth pales in comparison to Serbia. Montenegro could surprise a few teams here though. Expected to struggle after narrowly avoiding Nations League relegation on goal difference, Montenegro showed promise in their 1-0 win against Bulgaria and too in their loss vs Serbia. Hot prospect Nikola Krstović is expected to be on the move sooner rather than later and his goal vs Bulgaria was well taken. With Sead Haksabanovic offering more attacking substance, this is a side that won’t be afraid to swing at the big boys. Bulgaria and Lithuania already seem miles off it by contrast.
Group H
Group H, aka the one with San Marino, was the first to complete its first round of fixtures. As one of the three six-team groups each team got two fixtures to put their stamp on the group.
Slovenia were the only team to take full points from both their fixtures, although that doesn’t tell the full story. A come-from-behind win away at Kazakhstan and an unimpressive second-half double against San Marino will do little to convince Slovenia fans that they can go all the way. Slovenia have quality, Bijol and Lovric have quietly impressed for Udinese this season while Benjamin Šeško and Jan Oblak are practically stars already. They have the quality to qualify but Matjaž Kek will need to string together some better performances if they are to do so.
Denmark have already put themselves under unnecessary pressure in this group. After a Rasmus Højlund hat-trick saw off Finland, one man decided to send a tweet and they allowed Kazakhstan to come from behind to beat them in Astana.
The Danes won’t be hitting the panic button yet, everything still points to them topping the group and the aforementioned Højlund looks like a star in the making. That said they wouldn’t want to make a habit of upset defeats.
The Dynamic between Northern Ireland and Finland could be the most intriguing in the group. Both seem to be on a similar level. The return of legendary manager Michael O’Neill for the Irish already has them looking like a more solid unit. The absence of stalwarts Steven Davis, Jonny Evans and Stuart Dallas was felt against Finland but the continued ascensions of Dan Ballard and Conor Bradley are promising. The Finns meanwhile are the steady-eddies of the group. Marku Kannerva has crafted a difficult-to-beat unit from a squad that has been consistent in its personnel for a while. The central midfield dynamic of Rasmus Schuller and Glen Kamara will be vital for them while the ability of Joel Pohjanpolo and Marcus Forss to score should Teemu Pukki step out of the team is a major question mark.
As for San Marino, I mean, they gave it a really good go against Slovenia. Thumbs up for effort.
Group I
With Switzerland and Romania both taking maximum points from their first two fixtures, whilst the other four teams failed to even notch a win, Group I could be over as quick as it started. The Swiss are obvious favourites courtesy of not just their stacked roster but their recent history of strong team performances. I wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t drop points this whole group. Romania faced the two weakest teams in the group but did not stumble where Kosovo did. With previously vital components such as Ianis Hagi and George Pușcaș set to return to the fold from injury we could see this team improve over the course of qualification and really put a gap between themselves and Kosovo.
Speaking of which, the Dardanians are as yet unbeaten but will be disappointed with the nature of their two draws. Having gone ahead in both games, costly errors could already have halted their qualification dreams in a group they might have felt they had a chance in. Andorra meanwhile will be delighted at their draw against Kosovo and will seek to use this as a benchmark for future Nations League performances. Israel will be looking to capitalise on their Nations League promotion with some good showings following their draw with Kosovo but a 3-0 loss to Switzerland looks to have put paid to their momentum. As for Belarus… thanks for turning up I guess.
Group J
The third of three six-team groups, Group J is probably the easiest to call of them all. Way out in front we expect to see Portugal, home to one of the more embarrassing sub-plots in international football. Cristiano Ronaldo’s “I swear I’m not washed please love me” tour took stops in microstates Liechtenstein and Luxembourg on the way to claiming six points. Expect the shamelessness to continue as long as they keep winning and, more importantly, the rest of the team can put up with it. The Iberians have broadly the same team as they did in the world cup. Joao Palhinha continues to impress whilst Benfica’s António Silva shows promise. This is a team that has depth and ability. Without Fernando Santos hampering them we could see them go far. About the other man hampering though… we’ll see.
Elsewhere it will be between Slovakia and Bosnia & Herzegovina to contest the second-place spot in the group. Slovakia got the better of Bosnia at home this round but the gap is closer than the 2-0 win would indicate, as the Slovaks dropping points at home vs Luxembourg proves. The return of Milan Skriniar to partner David Hancko will doubtless improve them but a continued lack of firepower up top will seriously hamper their efforts.
Likewise for Bosnia only the ageing Edin Dzeko has scored more than 6 goals for the national team. Smail Prevljak and Ermedin Demirovic both have the latent ability to do well at this level though, if they catch fire then expect Bosnia to improve. Anel Ahmedhodžić too should continue to excel.
Iceland and Luxembourg are both in limbo a little here. Iceland are not the team they were in 2016 whilst Luxembourg are as good as they have been in their history, but neither seems capable of much more than grinding out a result against the three teams above them. Expect Liechtenstein to be the punching bag as the two teams tool themselves up for the Nations League campaigns where they can better prove themselves.